1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions required to be considered the next Prime Minister: the individual must win a vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, which explicitly excludes caretakers and interim leaders.
The rules clearly specify the conditions required to be considered the next Prime Minister: the individual must win a vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, which explicitly excludes caretakers and interim leaders. A definitive long-term deadline of March 31, 2028 is provided, resolving to an Other option if no new government forms by that time. While the rules list official government information as the primary source, they also permit a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary option, introducing a modest amount of decider judgment.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
84%
chance▼ −5 pts · 24h
The market price dropped from 93% to 82%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 11:35 UTC
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market measures whether Alberto Núñez Feijóo will become the next Prime Minister of Spain. Resolution requires the individual to secure a parliamentary vote of confidence and formal swearing-in, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker leaders who lack that vote.
The market resolves Yes if Alberto Núñez Feijóo becomes the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, having received a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and been formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under these same conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Spain, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·