Will Sabrina Carpenter be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify that the outcome depends entirely on the person ranked number one on Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global 'People' list.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify that the outcome depends entirely on the person ranked number one on Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global 'People' list. Google's published list is the sole authoritative source, leaving no discretion to third-party deciders. Participants should note that Google's Year in Search measures trending search spikes rather than raw total search volume throughout the year, but the rules explicitly point to this specific list. A definitive fallback to 'Other' applies if Google fails to release the list by March 31, 2027.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sabrina Carpenter will rank #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. An unusual aspect is that the market includes an "Other" outcome if Google fails to release the list by the specified deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sabrina Carpenter is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released. Resolution is decided by the specified list published by Google, regardless of site navigation procedures.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·