Will Caitlin Clark be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the exact metric and source: the individual ranked first on Google's official Year in Search Global 'People' list for 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the exact metric and source: the individual ranked first on Google's official Year in Search Global 'People' list for 2026. Resolution relies entirely on Google's published list without requiring subjective interpretation or multi-source consensus. The rules also provide a clear deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if Google fails to publish the list by then. One minor detail to note is that Google's Year in Search tracks trending search spikes rather than raw total search volume, but the rules explicitly name the exact published list that governs resolution.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Market explained
This market measures whether Caitlin Clark is ranked as the #1 individual in Google's official Global Year in Search "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Caitlin Clark is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by the official list published by Google, expected on the Google Trends Year in Search hub under Global trending people, regardless of the navigation procedure used to access it. The market resolves as soon as the list is released.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026 published by Google
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·