Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines the measurement metric as the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range compared to its level immediately prior to the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines the measurement metric as the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range compared to its level immediately prior to the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve sources, specifically the post-meeting statement published on the Federal Reserve website. Clear rules address non-standard adjustments by rounding up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a specific fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting concludes. There is minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 50 or more basis points following its December 2026 meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more relative to its level prior to the December 2026 meeting. The market resolves to No if the rate is decreased by less than 50 basis points, remains unchanged, or is increased. Rate changes not matching standard increments are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket. The resolution is determined by the FOMC's post-meeting statement published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statement and official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·