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EconomyCloses · in 25 days$8M volumePart of: Fed Decision in December? →

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the outcome is determined by changes to the upper bound of the target federal funds range announced in the official FOMC statement for the December 2026 meeting.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify that the outcome is determined by changes to the upper bound of the target federal funds range announced in the official FOMC statement for the December 2026 meeting. Official Federal Reserve links are designated as the direct resolution sources, leaving no room for decider interpretation. The criteria include explicit rounding rules for non-standard rate changes (rounding up to the nearest 25 basis points) and a fallback provision resolving to no change if no statement is published before the subsequent meeting.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

89%

chance

▲ +2 pts · 24h

Yes89¢
No12¢
25 bps increase · Yes · 1MO 75.5 H 90.5 L 62.5 C 88.5+13.0 (+17.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +12 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 09:40 UTC

The market price rose from 77% to 88%, coinciding with a simultaneous drop in the related "No change" outcome as expectations across December meeting options shifted.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 67% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 28 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: No change (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 09:50 UTC

Earlier

▲ +12 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 15:55 UTCThe probability rose from 67% to 78% as related outcomes repriced together, with the 'No change' outcome moving downward alongside this rise.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 18:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not listed in the options are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.

How it resolves

The market resolves to the bracket corresponding to the basis point change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level prior to the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The market resolves to Yes for the 25 bps increase outcome if the upper bound is increased by 25 basis points, including fractional changes that round up to 25 basis points. It resolves to No if the change is a different amount, if rates are decreased, or if rates remain unchanged. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the 'No change' bracket. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement following the December 8-9, 2026 meeting or data published on the official Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

FOMC statement and the official Federal Reserve website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·