Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines the relevant metric clearly as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Read the full assessment
The market defines the relevant metric clearly as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Resolution relies on direct, official Federal Reserve statements with specified URLs. Non-standard rate adjustments have an explicit rounding rule to the nearest 25 basis points, and there is a clear fallback resolution rule if no statement is issued by the subsequent meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.35 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following its December 2026 meeting. Non-standard rate adjustments round up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is reduced by 25 basis points compared to its level prior to the December 2026 meeting, including non-standard cuts that round up to 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the rate is changed by any other amount or remains unchanged. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No change outcome. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement following the December 8-9, 2026 meeting or data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
The FOMC statement and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·