brierpoınt
EconomyCloses · in 25 days$7.3M volumePart of: Fed Decision in December? →

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the outcome tracks changes in the upper bound of the target federal funds range decided at the FOMC meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify that the outcome tracks changes in the upper bound of the target federal funds range decided at the FOMC meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Official Federal Reserve statements and publications serve as the explicit resolution sources, with clear rounding logic for non-standard rate adjustments and a definitive fallback to resolve as no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

3%

chance

▼ −0.95 pts · 24h

Yes3¢
No97¢
No change · Yes · 1MO 21.5 H 36.5 L 1.4 C 2.8−18.8 (−87.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −20 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 09:40 UTC

The price fell from 23% to 2% as market expectations shifted across related outcomes, with probabilities for both a 25 bps increase and a 50+ bps increase rising simultaneously.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 73% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 28 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: 25 bps increase (up), 50+ bps increase (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC

Earlier

▼ −12 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 15:55 UTCThe probability of no rate change fell from 32% to 21% as related outcomes repriced, with expectations for a 25 bps increase rising concurrently.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 18:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged following its December 2026 meeting.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes for "No change" if the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged versus its pre-meeting level, or if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. It resolves No if the FOMC increases or decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. If the rate changes by an unlisted amount, it is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points for bracket resolution. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement issued after its December 8-9, 2026 meeting or data on the official Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

Federal Open Market Committee statement and the official website of the Federal Reserve

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·