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EconomyCloses · in 25 days$5.4M volumePart of: Fed Decision in December? →

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly define the measured variable as the upper bound of the target federal funds range compared to its level immediately prior to the December 2026 FOMC meeting.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly define the measured variable as the upper bound of the target federal funds range compared to its level immediately prior to the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The resolution source is explicitly identified as the official FOMC statement and Federal Reserve website. Clear mathematical guidance is provided for non-standard rate adjustments by specifying that changes will round up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a straightforward fallback rule resolves the market to no change if no statement is published before the next scheduled meeting.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

9%

chance

▼ −0.3 pts · 24h

Yes9¢
No91¢
50+ bps increase · Yes · 1MO 2.5 H 12.7 L 0.6 C 9.2+6.7 (+273.5%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 13:55 UTC

The implied probability of a 50+ bps Fed rate hike in December 2026 rose from 1% to 12%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 67% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 28 days after the move hour.

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 50 basis points or more following its December 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not matching standard increments are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC increases the upper bound of the target federal funds range by 50 basis points or more compared to the level prior to the December 2026 meeting. Non-standard adjustments are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 bps change counts as 25 bps). The market resolves to No if the rate is changed by any other amount, cut, or kept the same. If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the 'No change' outcome (No for this bracket). Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement and the Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

Federal Open Market Committee statement and the official Federal Reserve website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·