Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that an eligible agreement must involve a general, mutually agreed suspension of fighting with an explicit effective date, rather than a localized truce, unilateral pause, or framework for future talks.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that an eligible agreement must involve a general, mutually agreed suspension of fighting with an explicit effective date, rather than a localized truce, unilateral pause, or framework for future talks. Crucially, the agreement only needs to be reached before the deadline, even if its start date falls after. However, resolution relies on official statements from both belligerents or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving the market decider to evaluate whether news coverage qualifies as a consensus and whether partial or phased cessation terms satisfy the general pause requirement.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
36%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027. Notably, the agreement only needs to be officially reached by the deadline; it still counts even if it takes effect on a later date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include broad peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that constitute a general pause in the conflict with an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement, even if the effective date is after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific target categories or locations, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unannounced de-escalations, unilateral pauses, or frameworks for future negotiations without a dated commitment to stop fighting do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official government announcements from Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·