Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation if the warring parties issue conflicting narratives about what was agreed.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation if the warring parties issue conflicting narratives about what was agreed. The rules carefully define qualifying agreements by requiring an explicit, dated commitment to a general pause across the entire conflict, excluding local truces, target-specific limits, backchannel talks, and unilateral pauses. Importantly, the agreement only needs to be finalized before the deadline; it does not need to take effect before the deadline to count.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
43%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027. Resolution includes broader deals with an explicit stop-fighting date reached before the deadline even if the pause starts later, but excludes unilateral, informal, or location-specific pauses.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by credible reporting by April 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that constitute a general pause in the conflict with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting. If reached before the deadline, it qualifies even if it takes effect after the deadline. Agreements restricted to specific targets or locations, informal understandings, backchannels, de-escalations without an announced agreement, and unilateral pauses do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. The resolution is decided by official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·