Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution does not rely on a single binding registry or designated official arbiter, instead depending on joint government announcements or a consensus of credible news reporting to confirm that an agreement exists.
Read the full assessment
Resolution does not rely on a single binding registry or designated official arbiter, instead depending on joint government announcements or a consensus of credible news reporting to confirm that an agreement exists. The rules clearly distinguish between a qualifying general pause and excluded arrangements: localized truces, partial restrictions on specific target types, unilateral pauses, and agreements to negotiate without a firm, dated commitment to halt fighting will not count. Additionally, a qualifying deal signed before the deadline triggers a positive outcome even if the active cessation of fighting is scheduled to take effect at a later date.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
53%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine officially reach a qualifying ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include broad peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that provide a general pause in fighting with an explicit, dated commitment, even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific locations, target categories, unilateral pauses, informal understandings, or future negotiation frameworks do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official government statements from Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·