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EconomyCloses · in 25 days$238.8K volumePart of: Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) →

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market defines rate changes with high precision by referencing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate before and after each specified Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Read the full assessment

The market defines rate changes with high precision by referencing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate before and after each specified Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The resolution depends directly on official statements from the Federal Reserve website, leaving no subjective judgment. The rules also clearly outline how inter-meeting emergency actions are handled by excluding them from consideration.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

97%

chance

▲ +1 pts · 24h

Yes97¢
No3¢
Hike–Pause–Hike · Yes · 1MO 64.5 H 97.2 L 50.5 C 96.6+32.1 (+49.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +20 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 09:40 UTC

The market rose from 76% to 97% alongside a corresponding decline in the Hike–Pause–Pause outcome, as related options repriced together.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 64% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 28 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Hike–Pause–Pause (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee executes a rate hike, followed by a pause, followed by another hike across its September, October, and December meetings.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the September 15–16 meeting, maintains the same rate at the October 27–28 meeting, and raises it again at the December 8–9 meeting. The market resolves to Other if the Fed implements any different combination of actions across these three meetings, including any rate cut. Emergency rate changes occurring outside the regularly scheduled FOMC meetings are disregarded. Resolution is determined by the FOMC's post-meeting statements and the official Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

FOMC post-meeting statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·