Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria rely directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements with clear mathematical definitions for rate cuts, hikes, and pauses using the upper bound of the target rate.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria rely directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements with clear mathematical definitions for rate cuts, hikes, and pauses using the upper bound of the target rate. Emergency rate adjustments between meetings are explicitly ignored. Participants should note the specific clause stating that any rate cut will automatically be categorized under the Other outcome rather than an explicit combination, which can surprise someone reading only the title.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market explained
This market measures the target federal funds rate decisions across three specific FOMC meetings (September, October, and December). An unusual aspect is that any outcome involving a rate cut, or any combination not explicitly listed, resolves as Other.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate decided at three FOMC meetings: September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs if the new upper bound is lower than prior to the meeting. A qualifying hike occurs if the new upper bound is higher. A qualifying pause occurs if the new upper bound is equal. If the Federal Reserve publishes a different combination than any listed, or if any rate cut occurs, the market resolves to Other. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The FOMC statements published after its meetings decide the resolution.
Resolution source
FOMC statements published on the Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·