brierpoınt
EconomyCloses · in 25 days$231.6K volumePart of: Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) →

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market has clear and objective resolution mechanics.

Read the full assessment

This market has clear and objective resolution mechanics. The outcome is determined by official Federal Open Market Committee statements published directly on the Federal Reserve website following the three specified scheduled meetings. A hike, pause, or cut is explicitly measured by changes in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate relative to its level immediately prior to each meeting. Rate changes made during unscheduled or emergency meetings are explicitly excluded from consideration, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or ambiguity.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

3%

chance

▼ −0.35 pts · 24h

Yes3¢
No98¢
Hike–Pause–Pause · Yes · 1MO 17.5 H 35.0 L 1.1 C 2.5−15.0 (−85.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 09:40 UTC

The probability of a Hike–Pause–Pause sequence fell from 21% to 10%, as related outcomes for the Fed's next three decisions repriced together and Hike–Pause–Hike moved up.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 71% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 28 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Hike–Pause–Hike (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 09:50 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 22:25 UTCThe probability of a Hike–Pause–Pause sequence fell from 32% to 21% as related market outcomes repriced together, with the Hike–Pause–Hike scenario moving higher in tandem as the likely driver.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 22:35 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee executes a rate hike followed by two rate pauses across its September, October, and December scheduled meetings, based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Hike-Pause-Pause if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at the September meeting, keeps it equal at the October meeting, and keeps it equal at the December meeting. It resolves to Other if the Fed publishes any different combination across these three meetings, including any scenario involving a rate cut. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered. The Federal Open Market Committee's post-meeting statements decide the outcome.

Resolution source

FOMC's statement after its meetings / Federal Reserve official website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·