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EconomyCloses · in 32 days$500.2K volumePart of: Anthropic IPO by __? →

Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide clear and objective criteria for what constitutes an IPO, requiring shares to be listed and open for trading on a public exchange by a specific deadline.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide clear and objective criteria for what constitutes an IPO, requiring shares to be listed and open for trading on a public exchange by a specific deadline. Official filings such as SEC documents and exchange notices serve as the primary resolution sources. There is an explicit early resolution condition resolving to 'No' if Anthropic is acquired by an already public company, which prevents ambiguity in major corporate restructuring scenarios.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

98%

chance

▲ +0.15 pts · 24h

Yes98¢
No2¢
December 15, 2026 · Yes · 1MO 91.5 H 99.2 L 63.0 C 97.9+6.4 (+7.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC

The price rose from 85% to 96%, moving alongside related Anthropic IPO deadline outcomes for November 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026, which also repriced upward.

  • Largest hourly change: 19:00 UTC, 45% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 36 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: November 30, 2026 (up), December 31, 2026 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 21:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic completes an initial public offering (IPO) and begins public trading by December 15, 2026. An acquisition by an already public company triggers an immediate No resolution.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on December 15, 2026. The market resolves to No if this condition is not met by the deadline. The market resolves to No immediately if Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already publicly traded. Resolution is determined by official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (including SEC filings such as Form S-1 or Form 8-A, listing confirmations, and official press releases), or by a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (including SEC filings, exchange listing confirmations, and press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·