Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting. While the rules provide explicit boundaries—excluding unilateral pauses, local truces, or agreements that only limit specific target types—evaluating whether a complex diplomatic agreement constitutes a qualifying general pause with an explicit dated commitment to stop fighting requires subjective judgment. Additionally, an agreement finalized before the deadline qualifies even if the actual pause takes effect after the cutoff date.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
67%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a qualifying ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027. It requires a general pause in direct military engagement rather than a localized or category-specific restriction, but counts if reached by the deadline even if the ceasefire takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially reached by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement that constitutes a general pause in the conflict, including broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting, even if the agreement takes effect after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific locations or target categories, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unannounced de-escalations, and unilateral pauses do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official information from the Russian and Ukrainian governments and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·