Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation if statements conflict or reporting is mixed.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation if statements conflict or reporting is mixed. To qualify, an agreement must represent a general pause in direct military engagement rather than a localized truce, unilateral pause, or target-specific restriction. An agreement finalized before the deadline will resolve the market positively even if its effective start date falls after the deadline.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
59%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a general ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027. It allows a Yes resolution even if the ceasefire's effective start date occurs after the deadline, provided the agreement is reached beforehand.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a general ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by July 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include broad peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that feature an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement across the general conflict, even if the pause takes effect after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific locations or target categories, informal understandings, backchannel communications, de-escalation without announced terms, unilateral pauses, or agreements merely outlining future talks do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Official government statements from Russia and Ukraine and credible reporting consensus decide the resolution.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·