Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market sets explicit criteria for what counts as a ceasefire, requiring a mutual commitment to suspend direct military engagement and excluding unilateral pauses, informal understandings, or localized/target-specific arrangements.
Read the full assessment
This market sets explicit criteria for what counts as a ceasefire, requiring a mutual commitment to suspend direct military engagement and excluding unilateral pauses, informal understandings, or localized/target-specific arrangements. Resolution can occur as soon as a qualifying agreement is officially reached, even if its implementation date falls after the deadline. However, determining whether an accord meets the threshold of a general pause rather than a limited operational agreement relies heavily on decider interpretation when evaluating official statements or assessing what constitutes a consensus across credible reporting.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
70%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027. The agreement qualifies as long as it is officially reached before the deadline, even if it takes effect afterward.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially announced or confirmed by consensus reporting by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying deals include peace agreements, truces, or humanitarian pauses with an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement across the general conflict, even if the pause takes effect after the deadline. Agreements restricted to specific locations or target categories, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, or frameworks without an explicit dated commitment do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting determine resolution.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·