Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly outline what constitutes a qualifying ceasefire, requiring an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement across the entire conflict rather than localized or category-specific pauses.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly outline what constitutes a qualifying ceasefire, requiring an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement across the entire conflict rather than localized or category-specific pauses. An agreement reached before the deadline qualifies even if its effective implementation date falls later. However, resolution allows determination via a consensus of credible reporting if official government announcements are absent or contested, leaving judgment to market operators to evaluate reporting across outlets. Participants should also note that informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or frameworks solely outlining future talks do not qualify.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
60%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, such as a peace deal, truce, or humanitarian pause with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting, even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific target categories or locations, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unannounced de-escalations, unilateral pauses, or agreements merely outlining future negotiations do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·