Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting to confirm that an agreement was mutually reached.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting to confirm that an agreement was mutually reached. Determining whether a complex diplomatic text constitutes a full general suspension of direct military engagement versus a localized pause, partial restriction, or framework for future talks requires subjective judgment if the parties do not use standard terminology. Additionally, no single official body or document registry is designated to make the final determination, so resolution depends on evaluating media reporting across multiple outlets. Notably, the agreement only needs to be reached before the deadline; its effective implementation date can occur later.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
28%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a qualifying ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027. It allows broader deals like peace treaties or truces to qualify as long as they mandate a general suspension of fighting with a specified effective date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine officially reach a mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, even if the ceasefire takes effect after that date. Qualifying agreements include general peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting. Agreements covering only specific locations, restricted target categories, future negotiations, informal understandings, or unilateral pauses do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Official government statements from Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·