Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined. Resolution requires unanimous consensus among three major media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—when all three project the same winner. If that threshold is not reached prior to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market explicitly falls back to whoever is officially inaugurated as president. There is minimal ambiguity or decider discretion involved.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
7%
chance▲ +1.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gavin Newsom will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or the official inauguration.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·