Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines the winning condition and establishes an objective consensus requirement among three specific named news outlets: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines the winning condition and establishes an objective consensus requirement among three specific named news outlets: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If the three networks do not all call the race for the same individual prior to January 20, 2029, the rules establish a definitive fallback resolving based on who is inaugurated. The conditions and timeline align directly with the question.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Shapiro will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or the inauguration)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·