Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market has clear and standard mechanics for resolving a US presidential election.
Read the full assessment
This market has clear and standard mechanics for resolving a US presidential election. Resolution triggers as soon as three major news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all project the same winner. If those three outlets do not reach a consensus call, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. There is minimal ambiguity or room for administrative discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Buttigieg will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, resolution is determined by who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or the official inauguration.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or who is inaugurated if no consensus by inauguration date)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·