Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are straightforward and clearly structured.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are straightforward and clearly structured. Outcome determination relies on consensus among three specific major media networks—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If a consensus among all three outlets does not emerge before Inauguration Day, a clear and objective fallback rule dictates that resolution will follow whichever individual is inaugurated on January 20, 2029.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▼ −1.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or the inauguration outcome if sources do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·