Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the evaluation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after trading begins, and establish a final expiry date of December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the evaluation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after trading begins, and establish a final expiry date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than a named exchange or aggregator like CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. In volatile newly launched token markets, different trading venues or on-chain liquidity pools can show divergent prices, and determining both which pool is the most liquid and what the exact total supply figure is at that moment requires subjective judgment from the resolver.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $2.5 billion exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FDV of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $2.5 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV does not exceed $2.5 billion at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·