Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the timing cutoff as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token becoming tradable, along with a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the timing cutoff as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token becoming tradable, along with a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2026. However, resolution relies on the most liquid price source available without naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or metric for determining liquidity. Additionally, calculating the fully diluted valuation requires knowing the official maximum or total token supply, but the rules do not specify which tokenomics documentation or tracking platform will establish that supply figure at the evaluation timestamp.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenSea's token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) greater than $5 billion one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of OpenSea's token is greater than $5 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $5 billion at that specified time, or if OpenSea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·