Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title omits the target year, though the rules clarify that the outcome will be measured at market close on December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market title omits the target year, though the rules clarify that the outcome will be measured at market close on December 31, 2026. Resolution does not use a designated financial terminal, market data provider, or official exchange data, relying instead on a consensus of credible reporting to determine rankings. Furthermore, the rules do not define currency conversion standards or specify whether calculations are restricted to publicly traded equities, leaving those details to be settled by media consensus.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Amazon will rank as the world's largest company by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Amazon has the largest market cap in the world as of market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves No if another company holds the largest market cap at that time. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·