Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on specific, named quantitative indexes with an explicit hierarchy: the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026, followed by the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List as a backup, and finally the latest available Bloomberg snapshot if data is delayed past January 2, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on specific, named quantitative indexes with an explicit hierarchy: the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026, followed by the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List as a backup, and finally the latest available Bloomberg snapshot if data is delayed past January 2, 2027. The title omits the year, but the rules clearly establish December 31, 2026, leaving minimal ambiguity or discretion in how the outcome will be determined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Market explained
This market measures whether Warren Buffett is ranked as the wealthiest individual on December 31, 2026, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The market has a specific hierarchy of resolution sources and fallback conditions if the primary data is unavailable by certain deadlines.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if Warren Buffett is ranked as the richest person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, at 5:30 PM ET. The market resolves No if Warren Buffett is not ranked as the richest person on that index at that time. If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index data for December 31, 2026, is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used. If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is the primary resolution source.
Resolution source
Bloomberg Billionaires Index
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·