Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market establishes clear resolution criteria tied to a specific named metric: the top-ranked individual on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as of 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market establishes clear resolution criteria tied to a specific named metric: the top-ranked individual on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as of 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Clear, objective fallback rules and deadlines are outlined if the primary index update is unavailable, defaulting first to the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List and ultimately to the latest available Bloomberg data point. While the market question does not state the year 2026 explicitly, the rule text defines the exact date, timestamp, and source hierarchy, leaving minimal room for decider discretion or interpretation disputes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Market explained
This market measures whether Larry Page is ranked as the wealthiest individual on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026. The resolution has specific fallback rules if the primary source data is unavailable.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Larry Page is ranked as the #1 richest person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, at 5:30 PM ET. The market resolves No if anyone other than Larry Page is ranked as the #1 richest person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at that time. If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index data for December 31, 2026, is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used instead. If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The resolution is determined by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as the primary source.
Resolution source
Bloomberg Billionaires Index
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·