Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market rules specify an exact URL and table column from Box Office Mojo to determine the winning film based strictly on 2026 domestic calendar gross.
Read the full assessment
The market rules specify an exact URL and table column from Box Office Mojo to determine the winning film based strictly on 2026 domestic calendar gross. The conditions account for the timing of data availability, define an alphabetical tie-breaker, and establish a clear deadline of January 7, 2027, before any fallback source may be consulted. Participants should note that only earnings accrued strictly within the 2026 calendar year count toward the total, meaning box office returns from other calendar years will be excluded.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether the movie "Michael" will achieve the highest domestic calendar gross in the year 2026. Resolution strictly considers earnings generated within the 2026 calendar year.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if "Michael" is listed as the film with the highest 2026 gross under the "Gross" column on the Box Office Mojo 2026 calendar grosses page once December 31, 2026 data is available. Earnings from dates outside of 2026 are excluded. In the event of an exact tie, the movie that comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves to No if any other film holds the top gross or wins the tiebreaker. Resolution is decided using Box Office Mojo calendar gross data, or another credible resolution source if final data is unavailable by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo (calendar grosses page for 2026)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·