Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market points to a specific URL and table column on Box Office Mojo with an explicit tiebreak rule and backup deadline.
Read the full assessment
The market points to a specific URL and table column on Box Office Mojo with an explicit tiebreak rule and backup deadline. However, participants should note that the question asks about the top-grossing movie generally, while the rules specify domestic calendar gross strictly within 2026. This excludes international box office earnings as well as any domestic gross earned by 2026 releases in subsequent calendar years, which can diverge significantly from the worldwide total or full theatrical run totals typically associated with top-grossing rankings.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether Toy Story 5 achieves the highest domestic calendar gross of 2026. A notable detail is that only earnings within calendar year 2026 count, and exact ties are broken alphabetically.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Toy Story 5 has the highest 2026 gross according to Box Office Mojo once December 31 data is available. In the event of an exact tie, the film appearing first alphabetically is treated as the winner. The market resolves No if another film achieves the highest domestic gross for 2026 or wins the tiebreaker. Earnings outside of calendar year 2026 do not count toward any film's total. Resolution is determined by Box Office Mojo's 2026 calendar gross data, or another credible source if final data is unavailable by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·