Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify a single primary source and URL, pointing directly to the 2026 calendar gross table on Box Office Mojo.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify a single primary source and URL, pointing directly to the 2026 calendar gross table on Box Office Mojo. The rules clarify that only domestic box office earnings accumulated strictly within the 2026 calendar year count toward the total, meaning earnings in 2027 from late-year releases are excluded. An objective alphabetical tie-breaker is provided if figures are tied. The only minor variable is a fallback to another credible source if Box Office Mojo has not finalized December 31 data by January 7, 2027.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu will achieve the highest domestic calendar gross of 2026. Resolution specifically relies only on domestic earnings strictly within calendar year 2026, with an alphabetical tiebreaker rule.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" is the title of the film with the highest 2026 domestic gross according to Box Office Mojo's 2026 calendar grosses once December 31 data is available. Earnings outside of 2026 do not count toward this gross. The market resolves to No if another film has a higher 2026 calendar gross. In the event of an exact tie, the film appearing first alphabetically wins. Box Office Mojo serves as the primary resolution source. If final data is unavailable from the primary source by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·