Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define how resolution is measured, specifying the exact URL, calendar view, and column to consult on Box Office Mojo.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define how resolution is measured, specifying the exact URL, calendar view, and column to consult on Box Office Mojo. They also explicitly clarify that only domestic calendar gross within the 2026 calendar year counts, avoiding common confusion between worldwide totals and full theatrical runs. Clear tie-breaking mechanics and a definite fallback deadline in early January 2027 provide robust coverage with minimal decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
10%
chance▲ +2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether "Avengers: Doomsday" will achieve the highest domestic calendar gross of 2026. Uniquely, it tracks calendar-year box office earnings strictly within 2026 rather than total lifetime box office runs, and breaks ties alphabetically.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if "Avengers: Doomsday" has the highest 2026 domestic gross listed in the Gross column of the Box Office Mojo 2026 calendar grosses table once December 31 data is published. The market resolves No if another film has the highest 2026 domestic gross. Dates outside of 2026 do not count toward the gross. In the event of an exact tie, the film appearing first alphabetically wins. Box Office Mojo serves as the primary resolution source. If final data is unavailable from the primary source by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·