Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market provides a specific resolution URL and points to an exact column on Box Office Mojo.
Read the full assessment
The market provides a specific resolution URL and points to an exact column on Box Office Mojo. It explicitly clarifies that only domestic calendar gross earned strictly within 2026 counts, rather than total worldwide earnings or earnings extending into 2027. There is a defined tie-breaking rule (alphabetical) and a clear fallback deadline of January 7, 2027, if the primary source has not updated.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether the film Project Hail Mary will achieve the highest domestic calendar box office gross in 2026. Resolution is based strictly on earnings accumulated within the 2026 calendar year.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Project Hail Mary has the highest 2026 domestic gross according to Box Office Mojo once December 31 data is available. Earnings from dates outside of 2026 do not count toward this total. In the event of an exact tie, the film appearing first alphabetically is deemed the winner. The market resolves No if any other film holds the highest domestic calendar gross for 2026. The resolution is determined by the Gross column on Box Office Mojo's 2026 calendar grosses page. If no final data is available from this source by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·