Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the launch criteria, calculation method, and precise measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the launch criteria, calculation method, and precise measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. However, resolution relies on the most liquid price source available without naming a specific exchange or pricing aggregator in advance. If the token price trades near the four billion dollar valuation threshold across multiple decentralized or centralized venues at the target timestamp, the decider will have to determine which platform qualifies as having the deepest liquidity, which could influence the outcome.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token exceeds $4B one calendar day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token is greater than $4B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $4B at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·