Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines the snapshot timing as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and includes an explicit timeout resolving to No if no token launches by December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines the snapshot timing as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and includes an explicit timeout resolving to No if no token launches by December 31, 2026. However, the price source is not named in advance, relying instead on the decider identifying the most liquid price source available. Additionally, computing Fully Diluted Valuation depends on an agreed-upon total supply metric, which can vary across tracking platforms during the initial days of a new token launch.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of OpenSea's token exceeds $2 billion one day after its launch. An unusual aspect is that the market relies on the most liquid price source available and sets a specific time definition for one day post-launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of OpenSea's token is greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the token's FDV is not above $2B at that time, or if OpenSea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The evaluation is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·