Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Geopolitics markets
8 live markets · prices from Polymarket · Gotcha risk and tradability on every market card
Live Geopolitics markets8of Polymarket's most active
Moved ≥ 5 pts, 24h35▲ 14 up · ▼ 21 down
Most traded, 24h · among the markets below
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$511.5K
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?$95.2K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?$91.5K
Biggest moves, 24h
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?▼ −18 pts → 37%
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2027?▲ +12 pts → 46%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?▼ −11 pts → 80%
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?▲ +11 pts → 26%
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?▼ −9 pts → 10%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?
37%chanceSince Nov 9▼ −3 ptsYes37¢No64¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptions▼ −16 pts · 24h2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: November 22 (down), November 30 (down).US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −6 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingRussia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026?
<1%chanceSince Nov 12▼ −2 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsNATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?
<1%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsFrance declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?
<1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha low · nothing flagged