Weekly digest, 30 October 2026

The week's largest price moves on Polymarket, with the likely driver.

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?
▲ Up 77 points · Likely driver: Coin price
The market rose from 12% to 86% as Bitcoin fell 2.47% on Binance in the move hour, moving closer to the $77,500 target and making the dip more likely.
AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?
▲ Up 70 points · Likely driver: Coin price
The market rose from 7% to 75% as Bitcoin dropped 2.5% on Binance during the hour, making a dip to $76,000 much more likely.
AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:50 UTC
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
▲ Up 65 points · Likely driver: Not enough evidence
The price rose sharply from 33% to 98%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
AI-generated · 25 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
▼ Down 52 points · Likely driver: Related outcomes
The market fell from 96% to 45% alongside 5 related ceasefire outcome dates repricing downward simultaneously, the likely driver of the move.
AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:44 UTC
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
▼ Down 50 points · Likely driver: Not enough evidence
The price fell from 92% to 44%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:44 UTC

Markets closing in the next 7 days whose rules carry a High Gotcha risk.

How the most-traded markets resolved.