Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are strictly defined using a single metric from a single designated exchange.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are strictly defined using a single metric from a single designated exchange. The market resolves to Yes immediately if any one-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair reaches or exceeds $250,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. If that threshold is not reached during the window, it resolves to No. The only specific mechanic to note is that price action on other exchanges, index feeds, or alternative trading pairs does not count.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $250,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on one-minute candle data from a single exchange trading pair, ignoring all other exchanges and markets.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance one-minute candle for BTC/USDT between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET shows a final High price of $250,000 or greater. The market resolves to No if no one-minute candle reaches this threshold during the specified period. Prices from other exchanges, alternative trading pairs, or other spot markets do not count toward resolution. Resolution is determined solely using Binance BTC/USDT one-minute chart data.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·