Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules are clear and tightly specified.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules are clear and tightly specified. Outcome determination relies entirely on a single designated data feed: the one-minute candle low prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance. The market resolves to Yes immediately if any one-minute candle touches or dips below $40,000 within the explicit start and end timestamps in Eastern Time, and resolves to No otherwise. Price movements on other exchanges or trading pairs are expressly excluded, leaving no room for discretionary interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▲ +1.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) drops to $40,000 or lower on Binance before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT shows a final Low price of $40,000 or lower between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no such candle reaches that threshold within the specified period. Resolution is determined solely by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Low prices, excluding all other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Low prices
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·