Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the timing benchmark of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and provide an ultimate expiry date of December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the timing benchmark of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and provide an ultimate expiry date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' without designating a specific exchange, aggregator, or exact method to determine liquidity, which leaves room for interpretation if price feeds diverge. Additionally, while the formula for fully diluted valuation is given as total token supply multiplied by price, how total token supply will be officially verified is not explicitly defined.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Abstract's governance token exceeds $2.5B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than $2.5B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $2.5B at that time, or if Abstract does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Token pricing is determined by the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·