Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution.
Read the full assessment
The market rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution. The outcome relies entirely on a single named exchange feed, specifically the 1-minute candle Low prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance. The timeframe is precisely defined with start and end timestamps in Eastern Time, and early resolution is triggered if the target price is touched at any point during that period. No decider discretion or competing data sources are involved.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $5,000 or lower on Binance by December 31, 2026. It relies strictly on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market will immediately resolve to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT shows a final Low price equal to or lower than $5,000 between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to No. The outcome depends entirely on data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair, and prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded. Binance 1-minute candle data decides the resolution.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·