Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines the snapshot time precisely as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and provides a clear formula for calculating fully diluted valuation alongside an ultimate expiration date.
Read the full assessment
The market defines the snapshot time precisely as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and provides a clear formula for calculating fully diluted valuation alongside an ultimate expiration date. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named aggregator or exchange. For newly launched tokens with volatile trading across multiple decentralized and centralized venues, different liquidity measurements and price feeds could lead to conflicting valuations near the $150M threshold, leaving room for subjective judgment by the resolving party.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
72%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token exceeds $150M exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than $150M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price from the most liquid price source available. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $150M at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·