Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market provides a clear definition for the evaluation window, specifying 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, alongside a clear formula for calculating fully diluted valuation and a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market provides a clear definition for the evaluation window, specifying 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, alongside a clear formula for calculating fully diluted valuation and a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2026. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a dedicated price aggregator or exchange. If token prices fluctuate near the eight hundred million dollar threshold or vary across trading pairs, determining which venue qualifies as the most liquid is left to the resolver's judgment.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the Extended token exceeds $800M exactly one calendar day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Extended's token Fully Diluted Valuation is greater than $800M one day after launch. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $800M at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The evaluation time for one day after launch is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·