Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the calculation formula and define the timing checkpoint as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public tradability.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the calculation formula and define the timing checkpoint as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public tradability. However, the resolution source is broadly specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a dedicated tracker or primary exchange. Discrepancies between decentralized liquidity pools and centralized exchanges at the exact snapshot timestamp could create disagreement on the definitive price and fully diluted valuation.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Extended's token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation above $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it launches. Launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total token supply multiplied by token price) of Extended's token is greater than $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $3 billion at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·