Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the timing checkpoint as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch, but they do not name a specific data provider, exchange, or market aggregator to measure price and total supply.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the timing checkpoint as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch, but they do not name a specific data provider, exchange, or market aggregator to measure price and total supply. Instead, the decider must determine what counts as the most liquid price source available at that exact snapshot. Because different decentralized and centralized venues can display disparate token prices and calculate total versus fully diluted supply differently, this introduces discretion into the final valuation check if the pricing sits near the $2B threshold.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token exceeds $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch, calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $2B at that specified time. The market also resolves to No if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·