Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly establish the evaluation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launch, along with a firm expiration cutoff of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly establish the evaluation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launch, along with a firm expiration cutoff of December 31, 2026. However, the price resolution relies on the most liquid price source available without naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or metric for measuring liquidity. Additionally, the rules do not specify the exact source or explorer used to verify the total token supply for the calculation. If the valuation ends up close to the $500M threshold, discrepancies between different decentralized or centralized trading venues could introduce resolution uncertainty.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▼ −1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token exceeds $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it launches.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Extended's token has a Fully Diluted Valuation strictly greater than $500M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched. FDV is calculated by multiplying total token supply by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $500M at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The price is determined by the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·