Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a clear formula and a specific snapshot time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) as well as an explicit long-stop deadline of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a clear formula and a specific snapshot time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) as well as an explicit long-stop deadline of December 31, 2026. However, the price resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' without specifying a named tracker, centralized exchange, or decentralized pool, leaving discretion to determine which venue is considered most liquid at snapshot time. Additionally, the source used to verify the official total token supply is not explicitly stated.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▲ +0.8 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token exceeds $1 billion at a specific time on the day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $1 billion at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·