Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the Fully Diluted Valuation at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, measured as total token supply multiplied by token price.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the Fully Diluted Valuation at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, measured as total token supply multiplied by token price. A key point to watch is that the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available without naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or metric for determining liquidity. This leaves room for interpretation if price feeds diverge across centralized or decentralized venues. Additionally, determining what constitutes the precise launch day requires verifying when public and transferable trading officially began, though the end deadline and exact measurement time provide a clear operational framework.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
14%
chance▼ −2.95 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $2B exactly one calendar day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $2B at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Valuation is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·