Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government gazette.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government gazette. The rules clearly specify that mere announcements of resignation, scheduled departures following an election, temporary suspensions like impeachments, or provisional transfers of power do not count. Additionally, serving in a caretaker or interim capacity still counts as occupying the office, meaning resolution only triggers upon permanent, finalized departure. Market participants must monitor whether another listed leader departs permanently before Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, with the market resolving to none if no leader leaves before December 31, 2026.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the first leader among the listed individuals to permanently leave his office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. Mere announcements of departure, scheduled election exits, temporary suspensions, or continuation in a caretaker or interim role do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed leader is the first to permanently leave office. The market resolves to None before 2027 if no listed leader permanently leaves office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·